12 Nov 2024 to be the warmest year and first year above 1.5°C

According to Copernicus, October 2024 has been recorded as the second-warmest October globally, following the previous year, with average surface air temperatures reaching 15.25°C, a significant 0.80°C rise above the 1991-2020 average.

The ERA5 dataset shows that October 2024 was 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the 15th month in a 16-month span where global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above those levels.

Over the past year, from November 2023 to October 2024, the global average temperature anomaly stood at 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average, equating to an estimated 1.62°C increase compared to pre-industrial averages.

The first ten months of 2024 reported a temperature anomaly of 0.71°C, the highest on record for this period. Experts expect 2024 to become the warmest year on record, needing an unprecedented drop in temperature anomalies for that not to happen.

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, stated that it is virtually certain 2024 will be the first year to surpass 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, highlighting the urgent need for action ahead of COP29.

According to Burgess: “After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset. This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29.”